Publisher Description

The 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.

Author Biography

David A. Schultz is professor of political science at Hamline University.Rafael Jacob is post-doctoral fellow at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair's Center for U.S. Studies and instructor at the University of Ottawa's School of Political Studies.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Purple Battlegrounds: Presidential Campaign Strategies and Swing State VotersScott L. McLeanPart I: The "Classic" Swing StatesChapter 2: Florida: Still the Largest Swing StateSean D. ForemanChapter 3: Iowa: Still Swinging After All These YearsDonna R. Hoffman and Christopher W. LarimerChapter 4: New Hampshire as a Swing StateDante J. ScalaChapter 5: Nevada: A Swing State No More? Demographic and Political Change in the Silver StateDavid F. Damore and Rebecca D. GillChapter 6: OhioSean TrendePart II: The "Recent" Swing StatesChapter 7: Still Contesting Colorado? The Politics of the 2016 Election in ColoradoRobert R. Preuhs, Norman Provizer, and Andrew ThangasamyChapter 8: North Carolina: Still Swingin' in the SouthChristopher A. Cooper and H. Gibbs KnottsChapter 9: Virginia: Demography Drives the Old Dominion's DestinyJohn J. McGlennonPart III: The "New-Found" Swing StatesChapter 10: Michigan: Hiding Behind a Thin Blue WallDavid A. Dulio and John S. KlemanskiChapter 11: Keys to the Keystone State: Pennsylvania's Return as a Premier Swing StateRafael Jacob and Christopher BorickChapter 12: A Blue State Turns Red: The Future of Wisconsin Politics in the Aftermath of the Surprising 2016 ElectionNeil Kraus and Aaron C. WeinschenkPart IV: The "Emerging" Swing States?Chapter 13: Arizona: Right of Center with Potential to ChangeKate KenskiChapter 14: The "Two Maines" in a (Potentially) New Swing StateAmy Fried and James P. MelcherChapter 15: The Loyal Blue State of Minnesota: Turning PurpleDavid A. SchultzChapter 16: Swing Counties in Presidential ElectionsDavid A. Schultz

Review

Anyone hoping to do analysis leading up to or explaining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election would be well served to read Schultz and Jacob's Presidential Swing States. Though dealing with more states than the first edition, this second edition does not overemphasize the earlier work's strict (and somewhat confusing) definitions. As such, it seems clearer and serves as a road map or, better yet, a travel guide to the states that may play a determining role in the outcome of the next election. Gone from this edition is any confusion about the number of states being discussed, but added is a separate chapter that explores a number of specific, key counties that may be even more determinative of the 2020 outcome in an especially close contest. . . this edition of Presidential Swing States will be of great value for the amateur political analyst as well as the seasoned professional.Summing Up: Recommended. Graduate students, faculty, and professionals. * CHOICE *
Presidential Swing States is a welcome addition to the scholarship on parties and elections. The highly accomplished authors of this volume will enable students, scholars and journalists to better comprehend the state of play in the ten competitive states that dominate contemporary presidential politics. Combining insightful analysis and thorough research, they shed light on the raw and disruptive partisanship that has divided the country and tested the national resolve. -- Sidney M. Milkis, University of Virginia
It's early, but the most indispensable guide to the next presidential election has arrived. Both the treasure trove of data and the analyses of state-by-state voting patterns make this the book to keep close by as the 20202 campaign begins; it might even help prevent the widespread misreading of the last one. -- Jeff Greenfield, Author/ journalist
Presidential Swing States is a spot-on insider's guide to the outcome of what is sure to be a tumultuous 2020 presidential campaign.  A few states – the swing states – will determine the winner.  These states may not be the most populous, but they are the most important, and this book explains why and what to look for in each of them as the 2020 election nears. -- Tom W. Rice, The University of Iowa

Long Description

The 2020 United States presidential race is arguably already over except for about 12 states and 20 counties. If recent presidential election trends are any indication of what will happen in 2020, Democrats in Texas and Republicans in New York might as well stay home on election day because their votes will matter little in the presidential race. The same might be said for voters in most states and counties in the United States. Conversely, for those in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, and a handful of other states, every vote matters. These states will be battered with a barrage of presidential candidate visits, commercials, political spending, and countless stories in the media. This book analyzes why the presidential race has been effectively reduced to about a dozen states and 20 counties. Contributors to this volume make substantial updates and additions in light of the 2016 and in anticipation of the 2020 presidential elections, including 6 new chapters exploring why some states are swingers in presidential elections, capable of being won by either of the major candidates. The volume also adds a chapter examining important swing counties throughout the country. Presidential Swing States describes what makes these few states and counties unique and why the presidency is decided by who wins them. With cases studies written by prominent political scientists who are experts on these swing states, Presidential Swing States also explains why some states have been swingers but no longer are, why some are swinging, and which states may become the ones that decide the presidency.

Review Quote

Presidential Swing States is a welcome addition to the scholarship on parties and elections. The highly accomplished authors of this volume will enable students, scholars and journalists to better comprehend the state of play in the ten competitive states that dominate contemporary presidential politics. Combining insightful analysis and thorough research, they shed light on the raw and disruptive partisanship that has divided the country and tested the national resolve.

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