The Green Book RandomWalkTrading One Strategy for All Market Random Walk Trading

The Green Book RandomWalkTrading One Strategy for All Market Random Walk Trading

 

One Strategy for All Markets

by

J.L.Lord

Random Walk Trading

 
Retail Price: $399
 

This is the most comprehensive of Random Walk Trading book and one of the most expensive trading book available on the market. This secret is used by top floor trader and market makers.


 

One Strategy for All Markets

Traded by only a select few professional traders on the floor, and often incorrectly at that, this manual takes you from soup-to-nuts on the most powerful strategy the author perfected during his 10+ years on the trading floors of Chicago. This book teaches the reader how to put on trades where there could be virtually no risk of loss provided the market doesn’t crash more than 800 Dow points in a day. And even then, there is remedy for that should it occur. This strategy can be done in any market condition and blows the doors off any concept of risk–reward you may have ever learned before.

This is known as the “ BWB” or Broken Wing Butterfly

ONE STRATEGY FOR ALL MARKETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Option Fundamentals 9

Calls 10

Puts 11

Call and Put Variables 12

Strike Price 13

Expiration 13

Interest Rates (Rho) 15

Volatility (Vega) 15

Decay (Theta) 16

Intrinsic Value 17

Settlement 18

Put Option Analogy 19

Call Option Analogy 20

What makes up the Value of an Option 22

Intrinsic Value 22

Time Value 22

Function of Probability 23

Option Chain Time Values 25

Pricing Increments 26

Bid-Ask Spread 27

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) 29

Introduction 30

Definition 31

Practical definition of BWB 31

Ratio Spread portion 32

Breakeven and maximum profit at expiration 32

“Tail” purchase portion of trade 33

Risk and margin without the “tail” 36

Exact margin guidelines 36

Maximum loss 37

Formula for calculation of margin 38

How to reduce the risk and margin 39

Risk Graphs 39

Ratio spreads and the Greeks 40

Refresher of option's Greek definitions 41

Copyright Material © 1 All Rights Reserved

Option's Greeks calculation charts 42

Charts explained 45

Cost analysis 45

Delta analysis 47

Gamma analysis 48

Theta & Vega analysis 49

Why the Greeks work so well 49

The practical use and mechanics of Ratio Spreads 50

OEX option chain 51

How Ratio Spreads react in reality to Price 52

Market stays flat – no time passes 53

Market runs up – no time passes 54

Study of 535 put as Index advances 55

Formula for pricing options after a move 56

OEX example 57

OEX example using calls 61

How Ratio Spreads react in reality to Time 65

Market stays flat – time passes 65

Practical example 66

Illustration of reaction to time and price movement 69

Setting up an example 70

How to line up the option chains 70

What was the profit/loss 73

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) Entry Criteria 75

Introduction, circumstances and considerations 76

Step 1 – Select an underlying 77

Indexes 77

Stock 79

Step 2 – Decide bullish, bearish or neutral 79

OEX option chain 80

Call vs. put spread for even comparison 81

Step 3 – Select the month(s) 82

Front month 82

Back month 83

Step 4 – Determine with which strikes to begin 83

OEX option chain 84

Step 5 – Calculate the cost of small ATM spread 85

What is the ATM option trading for? 85

What do the next 2 OTM options trade for? 85

What is the net debit/credit? 85

Copyright Material © 2 All Rights Reserved

Step 6 – Calculate the cost of a medium width ATM spread 87

Pricing charts 88

Step 7 - Calculate the cost of a large width ATM spread 89

What can you expect to see? 90

Expected range of Ratio and BWB trades 91

Put skew 93

Call skew 93

Step 8 – Find the spread in the next month out 94

April OEX option chain 94

Same trade one month further out results 95

Step 9 – Determine range if underlying moved 5-6% 95

Step 10 – Calculate spread value after underlying moves 95

OEX put option chain 96

Approximating probability 97

Step 11 – Compare/contrast price possibilities 99

Step 12 – Determine if front or back month is better 100

Same month, same strike 100

Two months, two different strikes 101

Which month and strike is better? 102

Step 13 – Compare other indexes 107

Step 14 – Ratio Spread or Broken Wing Butterfly? 108

Ratio spread vs. BWB margin 109

Margin comparison 110

Step 15 – Converting a Ratio Spread to a BWB 110

Margin reduction 110

Risk reduction 111

Conclusion 114

Important note 115

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) Exit Criteria 117

Introduction and benefits 118

Step 1 – Calculate profit/loss on spread 119

Step 2 – Establish P/L goal and rolling down area 119

Step 3 – Front and Back month maintenance/closing 120

Front month 121

Back month 121

Step 4 – Watch the markets 121

Step 5 – How often to recalculate P/L points 122

Greater than 3 weeks to expiration 122

Less than 3 weeks to expiration 122

Step 6 – Re-evaluate P/L of the spread 123

Copyright Material © 3 All Rights Reserved

Adjusting for time and price movement 123

Worksheets 124

Step 7 – After re-evaluation, note where spread loses 125

Step 8 – Some action may be necessary 125

Exit for breakeven 126

Roll the trade further OTM 126

Be patient 127

Consider the “tail” 127

Step 9 – When to close 128

Market running in wrong direction 128

Profit less than 50% of maximum 129

Step 10 – Time to take the trade off 131

Risk Ratio Spreads (Aggressive) 133

Index Options 135

Why use index options? 136

OEX as an example 139

Bonus Chapter: The New Margin Rules 141

Margin: A Definition 142

Old Rules: Basic Option Strategies 143

Major Difference Between Old and New 144

So What Other Positions May be Affected? 145

Married Puts 145

Collars 150

Synthetic Puts 154

Reverse Collars 159

Gamma Scalping 164

Basic Synthetics 170

Call Time Spreads and Short Call Vertical Spreads 170

Put Time Spreads and Short Put Vertical Spreads 172

A Brief Word on Short Time Spreads 174

Things to Avoid 175

The Conversion 175

Going out Too Far in Time 176

A Few Last Thoughts 177

Appendix

Terminology 181

Types of Orders 197

 

 


The Green Book RandomWalkTrading One Strategy for All Market Random Walk Trading

The Green Book RandomWalkTrading One Strategy for All Market Random Walk Trading

 

One Strategy for All Markets

by

J.L.Lord

Random Walk Trading

 
Retail Price: $399
 

This is the most comprehensive of Random Walk Trading book and one of the most expensive trading book available on the market. This secret is used by top floor trader and market makers.


 

One Strategy for All Markets

Traded by only a select few professional traders on the floor, and often incorrectly at that, this manual takes you from soup-to-nuts on the most powerful strategy the author perfected during his 10+ years on the trading floors of Chicago. This book teaches the reader how to put on trades where there could be virtually no risk of loss provided the market doesn’t crash more than 800 Dow points in a day. And even then, there is remedy for that should it occur. This strategy can be done in any market condition and blows the doors off any concept of risk–reward you may have ever learned before.

This is known as the “ BWB” or Broken Wing Butterfly

ONE STRATEGY FOR ALL MARKETS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Option Fundamentals 9

Calls 10

Puts 11

Call and Put Variables 12

Strike Price 13

Expiration 13

Interest Rates (Rho) 15

Volatility (Vega) 15

Decay (Theta) 16

Intrinsic Value 17

Settlement 18

Put Option Analogy 19

Call Option Analogy 20

What makes up the Value of an Option 22

Intrinsic Value 22

Time Value 22

Function of Probability 23

Option Chain Time Values 25

Pricing Increments 26

Bid-Ask Spread 27

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) 29

Introduction 30

Definition 31

Practical definition of BWB 31

Ratio Spread portion 32

Breakeven and maximum profit at expiration 32

“Tail” purchase portion of trade 33

Risk and margin without the “tail” 36

Exact margin guidelines 36

Maximum loss 37

Formula for calculation of margin 38

How to reduce the risk and margin 39

Risk Graphs 39

Ratio spreads and the Greeks 40

Refresher of option's Greek definitions 41

Copyright Material © 1 All Rights Reserved

Option's Greeks calculation charts 42

Charts explained 45

Cost analysis 45

Delta analysis 47

Gamma analysis 48

Theta & Vega analysis 49

Why the Greeks work so well 49

The practical use and mechanics of Ratio Spreads 50

OEX option chain 51

How Ratio Spreads react in reality to Price 52

Market stays flat – no time passes 53

Market runs up – no time passes 54

Study of 535 put as Index advances 55

Formula for pricing options after a move 56

OEX example 57

OEX example using calls 61

How Ratio Spreads react in reality to Time 65

Market stays flat – time passes 65

Practical example 66

Illustration of reaction to time and price movement 69

Setting up an example 70

How to line up the option chains 70

What was the profit/loss 73

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) Entry Criteria 75

Introduction, circumstances and considerations 76

Step 1 – Select an underlying 77

Indexes 77

Stock 79

Step 2 – Decide bullish, bearish or neutral 79

OEX option chain 80

Call vs. put spread for even comparison 81

Step 3 – Select the month(s) 82

Front month 82

Back month 83

Step 4 – Determine with which strikes to begin 83

OEX option chain 84

Step 5 – Calculate the cost of small ATM spread 85

What is the ATM option trading for? 85

What do the next 2 OTM options trade for? 85

What is the net debit/credit? 85

Copyright Material © 2 All Rights Reserved

Step 6 – Calculate the cost of a medium width ATM spread 87

Pricing charts 88

Step 7 - Calculate the cost of a large width ATM spread 89

What can you expect to see? 90

Expected range of Ratio and BWB trades 91

Put skew 93

Call skew 93

Step 8 – Find the spread in the next month out 94

April OEX option chain 94

Same trade one month further out results 95

Step 9 – Determine range if underlying moved 5-6% 95

Step 10 – Calculate spread value after underlying moves 95

OEX put option chain 96

Approximating probability 97

Step 11 – Compare/contrast price possibilities 99

Step 12 – Determine if front or back month is better 100

Same month, same strike 100

Two months, two different strikes 101

Which month and strike is better? 102

Step 13 – Compare other indexes 107

Step 14 – Ratio Spread or Broken Wing Butterfly? 108

Ratio spread vs. BWB margin 109

Margin comparison 110

Step 15 – Converting a Ratio Spread to a BWB 110

Margin reduction 110

Risk reduction 111

Conclusion 114

Important note 115

Broken Wing Butterfly Spreads (BWB) Exit Criteria 117

Introduction and benefits 118

Step 1 – Calculate profit/loss on spread 119

Step 2 – Establish P/L goal and rolling down area 119

Step 3 – Front and Back month maintenance/closing 120

Front month 121

Back month 121

Step 4 – Watch the markets 121

Step 5 – How often to recalculate P/L points 122

Greater than 3 weeks to expiration 122

Less than 3 weeks to expiration 122

Step 6 – Re-evaluate P/L of the spread 123

Copyright Material © 3 All Rights Reserved

Adjusting for time and price movement 123

Worksheets 124

Step 7 – After re-evaluation, note where spread loses 125

Step 8 – Some action may be necessary 125

Exit for breakeven 126

Roll the trade further OTM 126

Be patient 127

Consider the “tail” 127

Step 9 – When to close 128

Market running in wrong direction 128

Profit less than 50% of maximum 129

Step 10 – Time to take the trade off 131

Risk Ratio Spreads (Aggressive) 133

Index Options 135

Why use index options? 136

OEX as an example 139

Bonus Chapter: The New Margin Rules 141

Margin: A Definition 142

Old Rules: Basic Option Strategies 143

Major Difference Between Old and New 144

So What Other Positions May be Affected? 145

Married Puts 145

Collars 150

Synthetic Puts 154

Reverse Collars 159

Gamma Scalping 164

Basic Synthetics 170

Call Time Spreads and Short Call Vertical Spreads 170

Put Time Spreads and Short Put Vertical Spreads 172

A Brief Word on Short Time Spreads 174

Things to Avoid 175

The Conversion 175

Going out Too Far in Time 176

A Few Last Thoughts 177

Appendix

Terminology 181

Types of Orders 197